(Business in Cameroon) - In Q2-2021, CEMAC economies will be more dynamic on a year-to-year basis, meaning that the economies are gradually recovering but are still fragile. Compared with the dynamism of the countries’ economies in Q1-2021 (after the recession in 2020), in Q2-2021, economic activities will be rather stagnant.
These are the views expressed by business leaders operating in the CEMAC region when questioned by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) in the framework of a CEMAC Q2-2021 business cycle forecasting document it recently published.
The leaders explain that they believe the economy will be stationary because, during Q1-2021, the health situation (Covid-19) worsened. Such development could lead to further restrictive measures, thus affecting economic activities in the coming three months.
Despite this sluggish projection, the BEAC document forecasts that some sectors will be dynamic. For instance, in the primary sector, economic activities will rise in agriculture, forestry, and gas exploration between April and June 2021. However, the oil, fishing, and livestock activities will remain stable, we learn.
"The secondary sector will also be stable, but significant improvement will be recorded in the construction (buildings and public works) segment. Finally, in the tertiary sector, growth would stagnate, with the trade sector being less dynamic and the air transport, hotel, and catering industries will still be vulnerable to the impacts of the second wave of Covid-19, which is more virulent than the first," the document added.
According to the central bank, the forecasting document is a quarterly report based on the survey of business leaders, government officials, and other key players in the various industries and sectors in the CEMAC region. The report presents the surveyed actors’ expectations on the evolution of economic activity in the region in the following quarter as well as the reasons that motivate their views.
Brice R. Mbodiam