(Business in Cameroon) - This year, CEMAC’s budget revenues are expected to reach CFA9,030 billion, up 7% from last year. According to the Bank of Central African States (Beac), the improvement is mainly driven by higher oil and gas revenues (+31.3%, to CFA3,570.9 billion).

This translates, in details, into an increase in crude oil barrel prices (+5.8% to $62.3 per barrel), an appreciation of the euro against the dollar as well as a recovery in oil production (+4.6%, to 45.2 million tons), particularly in Equatorial Guinea and Chad, and to a lesser extent in Cameroon.

Moreover, non-oil revenues should also increase, though at slower pace than expected (+8.8% instead of +13.9%), to CFA5,459.2 billion. This is the result of a downward adjustment of tax revenues by 5.3% to CFA5,027.2 billion, due to weaker increase than expected in non-oil activity (+1.8% against +2.1%). Though non-tax revenues are expected to grow by 5.0% to CFA431.9 billion, the amount is insufficient to offset the fall in non-oil incomes.

The central bank plans to cut CEMAC’s budget spending by 5.4% to CFA9,193.6 billion, to match the adjustment programs with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in four countries (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon and Chad).

Under this strategy, current expenditure would fall by 1.9% to CFA6,431.8 billion, drawn by a 14.5% decline in goods and services expenditure to CFAF 1,644.0 billion in all CEMAC countries, and to a lesser extent to a slight decrease in wages and salaries (-0.4% to CFAF 2,552.5 billion).

Sylvain Andzongo