(Business in Cameroon) - Cameroon's 2022 draft budget to be reviewed by the parliament forecasts a XAF562 billion oil revenue, according to the presentation made by Finance Minister, Louis Paul Motazé, during the special Ministerial council held on Novemeber 8.  

The forecasted figure is almost similar to the XAF561 billion oil revenues figures projected for 2021 in the budget amendment signed, on June 7, 2021, to account for the rise in international oil prices. But curiously, during his presentation, Minister Louis Paul Motaze mentioned that “a rise of XAF26 billion in absolute value and 4.9% in relative value in 2022 compared with the XAF536 billion projected for 2021, due to a lesser contraction of oil and gas production between the two budget years.” 

The official added that the 2021 oil revenues forecast was revised downwards to XAF477 billion due to the mid-term execution rate. Yet, there was no public announcement of another budget amendment apart from the one on June 7, 2021. 

The government does not state the reasons behind the downward amendment to XAF477 billion but in April 2021, despite an improvement in prices and sales (that prompted the June 7, 2021) budget amendment), it had already announced a 14.20% quarter-to-quarter drop in its il revenues in Q1-2021. 

“During the fourth quarter of 2021, in Cameroon, the production expectations are up compared with production in the third quarter of the same year, according to the SNH (the National Hydrocarbons Corporation). However, prospects are down for sales due to sluggish demand in high crude oil consumption economies still in lockdown,” the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) wrote in its Q4-2021 quarterly survey published in October 2021. This projection makes the oil revenue forecasts presented by Minister Louis Paul Motazé more difficult to understand.

Brice R. Mbodiam